The article below is a translation from Italian of an update, written just after the Israeli attack on Iran, to the Internationalist Communist Party’s document already on our site entitled Unending Barbarism: The Causes that Led to the Middle East Crisis (first published in English on 23 October 2024).

As promised, the predicted Israeli retaliation against Iran took place on the night of 25 October. The attack took out the Iranian air defence system to allow the F-16s, "kindly" provided by the Biden administration, to have the tactical opportunity to act undisturbed and to bomb military positions, and factories for the drones and missiles that had been launched into Israeli skies on 1 October. Three hours of bombing led to four deaths among the Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards), but left nuclear power plants and oil facilities unscathed, as per the agreement which USA had imposed on Israel, and which Netanyahu reluctantly had to accept. The operation, agreed with the USA and announced beforehand, was only intended as a warning to the republic of the Ayatollahs, without provoking a response that would have intensified the war in the region, and possibly an even bigger war beyond it. The possible risk would have been that of a reaction, already planned by the Tehran government, to hit the oil facilities of the major oil producing countries in the area, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and the Israeli fields in the Mediterranean themselves.

Sean Savett, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, reported that no American military personnel participated in the operation, forgetting to mention the F-16s they sent to the area from Germany, the satellite coverage to identify the targets, the funding for the Israeli Defence Force and the supply of anti-missile rockets that have been so beneficial to Israel's defence. This oversight aside, the US wanted to play a zero-risk game, giving a warning to Iran and its allies, but without going further. The USA as a force for peace, then? Dream on! The USA was in the midst of an electoral emergency, the political future was uncertain. Its strategic needs are oriented more towards the Indo-Pacific, towards the ever-increasing Chinese economic and financial competition, and towards the latent crisis in Taiwan. So, time will tell. Washington is waiting for the reactions, even if only diplomatic, of China and Russia, and then we'll see.

In the immediate aftermath, Russia limited itself to condemning the Israeli operation, appealed to BRICS members to make their voices heard against Israel, concluding that, if there were a follow-up with attacks on nuclear bases, Moscow would help Tehran to strike the Israeli nuclear facilities in Dimona. Iran initially let it be known that the damage suffered was minimal and that if the Israeli attack ended there then there would be no further retaliation but if not there would be the risk of an open conflict. Khamenei is waiting for China to speak out, both as an ally and for economic reasons. In fact as 95% of Iranian oil is devoured by the Chinese economy it awaits Beijing’s definitive response before any projected action. After Israel continued to bomb what remains of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, even destroying some installations of UNRWA (the UN agency that provides aid to Palestinian refugees), Khamenei raised the tone by openly threatening Israel. Saudi Arabia, torn between the Abraham Accord and its recent entry into the BRICS group together with Iran, has spoken out against Israel: "Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran is a violation of its sovereignty and a violation of international laws and norms", nothing more. Oman has expressed itself in the same way. China remains silent for now. Everything seems to point to Beijing looking for an, albeit difficult, negotiated solution, but this could be the calm before the storm. In fact, while attempts are being made in Doha for a ceasefire in Gaza and negotiations are underway for the return of the hostages, both Netanyahu and Khamenei are exchanging fiercely hostile messages.

While the world was waiting for the Israeli attack on Iran, Beijing, which has other problems to deal with, has harshly condemned the sale of long-range missiles (surface-to-air) by the USA to Taiwan. According to Chinese statements provided by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Washington's act not only seriously damages relations between the two powers but, in fact, would create the conditions for the opening of a crisis that could lead to the breakdown of peace in that region. The Chinese note continues by warning that the sale of missile systems "seriously violates China's sovereignty and security interests, seriously damages China-US relations and endangers the peace and stability of the entire area". It is not a declaration of war, but the complaints and threats are clear and heavy. In addition, the two naval fleets have been patrolling the perimeter of the island for months as if to underline that on the "Taiwan issue" neither is willing to take a step back. In this regard, China is working hard to build a sophisticated radar system on a coral reef in the China Sea to counter American stealth aircraft, which are invisible to normal radar. According to the British research centre Chatham House, Beijing is about to complete its construction on Triton Island, in the south-western part of the strategic Paracelsus Islands archipelago. This network of radars, of important strategic and military value, would also simultaneously serve as a base for launching the latest-generation missiles. According to Reuters, the Chinese aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong have been and continue to be engaged in double formation exercises in the South China Sea since early November, possibly in preparation for more complex military actions.

Trump's victory in the presidential elections plus a Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives will certainly not diminish the current tensions but could increase them, even if Beijing talks ambiguously of “peaceful coexistence for now", in clear contrast with previous statements. At the same time Netanyahu immediately congratulated Trump for his overwhelming victory which opens the way for "a new beginning for America and a powerful commitment" obviously in favour of closer collaboration between the two governments. It is an explicit statement that Trump will not hinder the devastating fulfilment of Netanyahu’s plan for Palestinian territory but supports it, without the defective brakes of the outgoing Administration which, despite giving consistent support to Israel, tries to restrain its very violent reaction against everything and everyone in massacring civilians. The terrible bombings of Gaza and Lebanon will carry on, and then, with the new Administration as a close ally, they will focus on Iran, to build a new order in the Middle East that would make Israel its central linchpin. In such a project there is no room for the phantom hypothesis of two peoples and two states. Israeli hopes here are not fanciful. In 2019, during the previous Tramp Administration, his son-in-law Kushner, as factotum for foreign policy, established an agreement with Israel so that the occupied territories and the increasing land grabs of the settlers in the West Bank would achieve international legality. And, at the earliest opportunity, 30% of what remains of the West Bank territory would fall into the hands of Israel. The opportunity has arrived and the Israeli parliament is already planning the project by approving a law according to which it could deport individuals, groups and families who “express support, endorsement or identification with the terrorist act of Hamas”. The warning basically means all the inhabitants of Gaza, those of the West Bank, and a good part of those who live in Israel and “are Israeli citizens”, including the inhabitants of East Jerusalem. Deportation to places to be assigned ranges from a minimum of 7 years to a maximum of 20. Where? In the Negev desert through the installation of enormous refugee camps or, better still, after being detained they could be forced to take refuge in Jordan, Egypt or Syria, depending on the willingness of these countries to welcome them.

In the election campaign Trump had already boasted that he could promote a peace process on the three current hotspots, two already at war and the other full of tension. The first, the Russian-Ukrainian war, would be resolved according to “Trump thought” by lowering military aid to Ukraine, making life difficult for it, and thus making it more amenable to an agreement. Russia would be granted the Russian-speaking territories with the promise that for 20 years Ukraine would not join NATO (one of the main reasons for its war with Ukraine). In addition, without saying it openly, Zelensky would be replaced during the negotiations because he is not prepared to negotiate. With this strategy, Ukraine would still remain in the American orbit, Russia would be sidelined by satisfying it in terms of the conquest of some territory, and Trump would build his image as the great statesman who dominates the world, pacifying it and reviving American imperialism’s power at international summits. Obviously, everything remains to be confirmed because talk is one thing, actual achievement is another, and it all assumes that the peace proposals are not seen as a poisoned chalice by Russia and its ally, China.

For the Middle East, Trump's "Pax Americana" as we have seen, allows Israel to erase the Palestinian problem by eliminating the Palestinians from Palestine. In support of this strategy the Abraham Accords, as Trump wanted between the USA, Israel and the UAE, signed on 13 August 2020, will be revived with the hope of also including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, that is, the more "moderate" Arab countries which had already agreed to recognise the state of Israel in opposition to Shia Iran, another imperialist force in the Middle East and ally of Chinese and Russian imperialisms, respectively the US’ enemies no. 1 and 2.

The objective difficulty for this ambitious project to come about immediately is because: a) Russia could also accept Trump’s proposed peace, not so much, or not only, for the possession of Russian-speaking territories, or for the mendacious promise that Ukraine would not enter NATO for twenty years, but because it would still remain in close alliance with China, a leading imperialist competitor that in fact acts against the USA; b) the new Middle Eastern scenario is also much more complex than American expectations. An Abraham Accord that envisages the admission of Saudi Arabia and Egypt contradicts their presence in the heterogeneous formation of the BRICS. Furthermore, al Sisi fears the Israeli-American plan. By envisaging the removal of the Palestinians from Palestine, it would force some of them to crowd together at Egypt’s borders, thus allowing the jihadists (Muslim Brotherhood) to return to Egypt and continue to be the thorn in the side of his government which al Sisi had brutally freed himself of after he became President; c) for the new Israeli Foreign Minister Saar, the creation of a Palestinian State "is not a realistic option" in the potential peace scenarios, effectively erasing all the hypocritical options of its birth. After 7 October, Israel's plan is to erase what remains of Palestinian autonomy.

Beyond these serious problems the actual realisation of this “Pax Americana” faces, as part of Trump’s fake pacifist narrative, rather than any strategic conviction, the central issue: China. Beijing, as repeatedly reiterated, has trumpeted to the four winds that its imperialist programme plans to make it the leading country in the world for production and distribution of goods, including technologically advanced ones by “2035”, surpassing American competition. In agreement with many of the BRICS countries, it intends to undermine, as much as possible, the dominant role of the dollar, thus taking away from the US one of the fundamental props on which American imperialism stands. All this without forgetting that a “war” is already underway around Taiwan and over supremacy throughout the Indo-Pacific. That is where the most important game will be played, even if the current wars help to stoke the tension. Trump has decided to nominate Florida Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Rubio's coronation comes just hours after rumours of Mike Waltz's nomination as National Security Advisor. The two nominations, like the subsequent ones, demonstrate the first signs of a sudden change in US foreign policy, particularly towards the China menace. Many believe that this change of direction will lead Washington to worsen relations with Beijing, and to review its positions on Russia, the Middle East and Iran.

So this is what global capitalism has in store for us: a structural crisis, permanent wars, continuous barbarism, a war economy with consequences for the world of work, welfare cuts, impoverishment of the mass of the working class, and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

It’s time to break this infamous spiral of death and destruction. It is also true that all this creates the conditions for any victorious capital to destroy in order to rebuild, breathing life into the asphyxiating profits that the crisis imposes on the development of modern capitalism in decline. So, for capital, let’s have war but not fought by its supporters but by workers, against each other, in defence of the imperialist interests of the various national bourgeoisies, as always under the banner of the search for profit which enriches a few, that exploits many and that is the prime mover of the crises and the wars that derive from them, whatever their alleged justification. It is already responsible for tens of thousands of deaths. But it is equally true that the only army that is best placed to fight against this inhuman economic and social system can only be the one formed by the workers of the whole world, by the dispossessed, by those that the voracity of capitalism has driven onto the lowest rungs of the social ladder. It is an army that must turn its weapons against its own bourgeoisie, against an economic system based on exploitation, for a world that places humanity in a position to live better and not to die in "friendly fire". "Proletarians of all countries unite" to wage war on war is a slogan that was never as pertinent as now.

No to imperialist war, yes to class struggle!

Appendix

As evidence of more imperialist intrigues, the US has vetoed yet another UN resolution that called for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, because the resolution did not provide for the immediate release of the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas as a precondition. 15 countries belonging to the UN Security Council voted in favour of the proposal that called for "an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire that must be respected by all parties and also reiterates the demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages". For Washington, the text was inadequate, as its wording suggests that the release of the Israeli hostages would only take place after the ceasefire began.

The USA was thus the only country to oppose the text and, as one of the five permanent members with a veto, along with Russia, China, Great Britain and France, they have the power to prevent any decision being reached. It is the fourth time that the US has used its veto power to block a Security Council resolution concerning the situation in Gaza. The US Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations, Robert Wood, stated on 20 November that his country will only support a resolution that explicitly calls for the immediate release of the hostages. He added that "There are still seven American citizens in the hands of Hamas. We will not forget them. For our part, we will continue to pursue a diplomatic solution that brings peace, security and freedom to the Palestinians in Gaza", he concluded. Lies passed off as official declarations that do not undermine the role of US imperialism alongside its ally Israel; like the talk of a truce that it is always denied in practice, or the talk of peace while war continues to be supported.

Almost simultaneously, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over the conduct of the war in Gaza, "for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least 8 October 2023 until at least 20 May 2024, the day the Prosecution filed the applications for warrants of arrest", according to a note denouncing "a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza".

This is the barbarism that unites Russia, Ukraine, the USA, Iran, the whole gamut of Islamic jihadism and Israel, against which we have to fight. But not with phantom and impracticable "solutions" of peace, or sentences of an International Criminal Court which will never be put into practice, but with the class struggle, the only force that can act on an international scale, as the crisis of capitalism is international, and reverse the inertia of the current course towards generalised war.

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Image: Hamed Malekpour (CC BY 4.0), commons.wikimedia.org