Imperialist Tensions Are Heating Up The Arctic

Trump’s recent intentions to acquire Greenland and take over Canada show that the US is taking an increasing interest in the Arctic. The area is home to a huge number of strategic resources such as gas, oil, rare earths, gold, and lithium. The advantage of acquiring these for both economic and military purposes is obvious, not to mention the strategic geographical position of Greenland given the tension between the US and Russia. Moreover the Arctic is of interest for its potential maritime trade routes and fishing waters now that the ice is melting. The US is far from the only power interested in the area. Russia, Canada, Scandinavian countries, and even European and East Asian countries that are not directly linked to the region (China called itself a ‘near-Arctic state’) have taken an active interest in it. The Arctic is another conflict zone between the imperialist blocs in formation. As we stated in 2021, a “new imperialist arena has opened up due to rapid and catastrophic environmental calamity”.⁽¹⁾ And increased activity in the Arctic will only further the environmental catastrophe.

Greenland

The growing international attention on the Arctic over the last few years has put Greenland in the firing line of an increasing number of cyber attacks from foreign powers. Before Trump stated his intention to obtain Greenland, worry came mainly from Russia and China, accused by Greenland’s government of seeking to gain resources and sea routes, potentially at their expense.⁽²⁾ China in recent years has been hoping to gain access to the resources of territories such as New Caledonia⁽³⁾ or Greenland instead of their traditional colonial masters. The US and Denmark fear that an independent Greenland would open the door to China. China is, after all, one of Greenland’s biggest trading partners. In 2020, Greenland exported approximately 1.3 billion kroners (€0.169bn) of seafood products to China. Its competitors are concerned China is seeking to secure a global monopoly on rare earth minerals. In 2018, China announced the ‘Polar Silk Road’, a joint Chinese-Russian initiative to build new shipping routes through the Arctic. However, China’s efforts to gain a foothold in Greenland itself have been largely unsuccessful so far, with for example General Nice’s (a Chinese mining company) Isua iron-ore project licence being cancelled in 2021.⁽⁴⁾ Greenland also banned uranium mining and ceased development of the Kuannersuit mine, one of the biggest rare earth deposits in the world, owned by Australian mining firm Greenland Minerals, that same year.⁽⁵⁾

While several mining projects have had Chinese involvement, US interests in Greenland have pushed China out. China had wanted to buy an old maritime station abandoned by the Danish armed forces as well but was thwarted by the US. In 2019, China withdrew plans to build two airports in Greenland, possibly again due to US involvement.⁽⁶⁾ Today, the US overtly covets Greenland. US plans go further back than Trump. In response to rising competition in the Arctic and China trying to garner influence in the region, the US established an ‘Ambassador-at-Large for the Arctic Region’ in 2022. In 2023, then NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg wished to boost presence in the region in order to counter Chinese and Russian interests.⁽⁷⁾ The US has had interest in Greenland for a long time, if only for its strategic importance. The US military has been present in Greenland since the Second World War and there is currently a large US Air Force air base there, with radar essential to missile defence and space security. But today it is chiefly its wealth of raw materials that interests the US. Trump wishes to purchase Greenland from Denmark, only fuelling the independence movement further. Greenland’s current prime minister is pushing for independence, stating that “our cooperation with other countries, and our trade relations, cannot continue to take place solely through Denmark”.⁽⁸⁾ The prime minister has suggested that an independence referendum could coincide with parliamentary elections in April.⁽⁹⁾ But he remains moderately pro-independence, understanding that a complete break from Denmark would mean loss of the block payment on which Greenland’s economy relies. Development of the extraction of raw resources is needed to provide a basis for independence, which can only be done via foreign capital. Denmark for its part has announced it would increase defence spending to protect Greenland and the Faroe Islands by at least 1.3 billion euros and has pivoted its new ship plans from Baltic to Arctic defence.⁽¹⁰⁾

Preparing For War

The melting sea ice has allowed increased economic and military activity from various countries. In 2018, a US nuclear aircraft carrier ventured above the Arctic circle for the first time in decades. Although back in 2019, the US navy considered the Arctic to be “low risk”⁽¹¹⁾, four guided-missile American ships still set up a temporary base in Iceland.⁽¹²⁾ In 2023, the US military conducted a 10-day exercise in near-Arctic conditions to improve readiness to face Russia and China in the region.⁽¹³⁾ The US military is now clearly expecting a coming world war to have the Arctic as one of its theatres. It should be remembered that the US itself is, thanks to Alaska, an Arctic country. The Bering Strait is a crucial chokepoint. US military bases in Alaska are not as important as its one in Greenland, however.

Canada is also preparing for war and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has announced plans to build a new Arctic military base if he gets elected as prime minister.⁽¹⁴⁾ Canada has announced it would modernise its radar system⁽¹⁵⁾ and boost its defence spending.⁽¹⁶⁾ Canada also has an interest in mining in the Arctic, as we pointed out in 2023:

Canadian capital sees lucrative prospects in mining and other forms of resource extraction in its far north. Canada is already a dominant imperialist player in world mining with 75% of mining companies headquartered in the country. Not only can Canadian capital boast large domestic deposits but it also finances and oversees global mining operations from Cuba to Chile to Indonesia. Canada is a leading producer of nickel, gold, copper, iron, titanium, uranium, lithium, cobalt, potash, niobium and zinc, and in 2003 diamond deposits discovered in the northern territories allowed it to surpass South Africa in diamond production.⁽¹⁷⁾

Russia, for its part, is investing billions of dollars in oil and gas projects and building military infrastructure all along its Arctic coastline. About 2.4 million Russians live in the Arctic, over half of the total Arctic population. Cities like Murmansk offer military personnel in the country’s north twice the annual median income, making them now the region’s main taxpayers. The Russian coastline makes up around 53% of total Arctic coastline. Since its annexation of Crimea, Russia has reopened and modernized upwards of 50 Cold War-era bases along this coastline. 10% of Russia’s GDP and 20% of its exports lie within the Arctic Circle.⁽¹⁸⁾ Due to the economic sanctions imposed as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian exports plummeted. In the first 11 months of 2022, Gazprom’s (Russia’s major gas company) exports plummeted by as much as 44.5% compared with the same period in 2021. In response to this, Russia opened new gas fields in its Arctic territory.⁽¹⁹⁾ As of 2022, the US only had 2 icebreaker ships, with plans to build six more, while Canada had 18, and Russia more than 50. In addition to those, Russia had planned to build nuclear-powered icebreaker ships but was forced to scrap the idea in 2023 due to the EU’s economic sanctions. This hampers Russia’s ability to make use of the Northern Sea Route to exploit its vast Arctic oil and gas reserves. Due to the war in Ukraine, Russia’s oil and gas exports have shifted from Europe to Asia and the ships would have been crucial in escorting oil and gas tankers to Asia.⁽²⁰⁾ China plans to build its own class of nuclear-powered icebreakers.

This shows that BRICS countries are also involved, having expressed interest in cooperating with Russia in the Arctic.⁽²¹⁾ As mentioned above, rare earths are one of the resources the various imperialist factions covet, hence the US thwarting China from gaining an even larger percentage of the world’s rare earths reserves by mining those found in Greenland. No rare earths are mined in EU currently and about 98% of rare earths used in the EU in 2021 were imported from China. However, a huge deposit of rare earths was discovered in Sweden’s far north in 2023.⁽²²⁾ European countries, in order to reduce their dependency on China, could very well turn to the Arctic. The UK, due to its alignment with the US and geographic placement, would inevitably be involved in a world conflagration in the Arctic. The Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom corridor is another crucial chokepoint.

Norway is another key player. The US and Norway are looking to strengthen their military cooperation. Norway recently expressed interest in buying British helicopters in order to deal with Russian submarines in the High North.⁽²³⁾ Norway’s navy has increased underwater monitoring and aerial shipping lane surveillance. Norway is preparing for war by increasing its defence budget⁽²⁴⁾ and conducting military exercises with new NATO members Sweden and Finland.⁽²⁵⁾ Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago midway between Norway’s northern coastline and the North Pole and Europe’s northernmost inhabited settlement, is of particular strategic importance. It is home to the world’s largest satellite relay, relied on by everyone, US and China alike. It is considered a demilitarised, visa-free zone by 42 countries. It will no doubt be at the centre of the growing imperialist conflict over resources and trade routes in the region.

Sea Routes

Arctic sea ice has been thinning dramatically since 2007.⁽²⁶⁾ The Arctic could be ice free in the summer as early as 2035. While admiring the destruction they have brought about, capitalists only see new opportunities to make more money, which will inevitably worsen the situation. The thaw has already created new shipping lanes, opened existing seasonal lanes for more of the year, provided more opportunities for resource extraction, and could open yet more lanes. Such routes, if they were to become more reliable, would have dramatic geopolitical ramifications. For example, if trade between Asia and Europe could reliably go through the Arctic, the Suez Canal would lose much of its importance.

Fiber-optic cables could be used to help ships navigate the Arctic.⁽²⁷⁾ Fiber-optic cables line the coasts of the continents and the bottoms of oceans and are the backbone of modern telecommunication. Researchers have found ways to use these cables to monitor storms, earthquakes, whales, and ships. This could help make Arctic sea routes more reliable. Indeed, while the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet, which is close to a point of no return⁽²⁸⁾, means potential sea routes, it also means more icebergs. A plan by a joint-venture between the Finnish company Cinia, American company Far North Digital, and the Japanese company Arteria Networks to build a fiber-optic cable across the Arctic seabed secured an investment of 1.1 billion euros in 2022.⁽²⁹⁾ The cable is to link Europe and Japan via the Northwest Passage, after plans by Cinia to run it along the Russian coastline in a venture with Russian mobile phone operator Megafon fell through amid rising tensions. Instead, the Russian government began laying cable in the Northeast Passage for its own ‘Polar Express’ project in 2021. Existing network cables between Europe and Asia run mainly through the Suez Canal, which is less direct and vulnerable to damage from heavy shipping traffic.

However, Arctic sea routes have limitations. Apart from more icebergs due to melting ice, harsh conditions, shallow depths, and the current lack of infrastructure mean these sea routes are still not yet ideal. In addition, heightened maritime activity in the Arctic means heightened risk of accidents. In January, a Russian nuclear icebreaker collided with a cargo ship that it was attempting to break out of ice.⁽³⁰⁾ Such incidents increase the likelihood of an oil spill, which would damage the ecosystem. In 2020, the Ambarnaya River in northern Siberia turned red after an Arctic oil spill. All that being said, Arctic sea routes are undoubtedly a part of the current imperialist tug of war. For example, in 2022 Russia passed a law limiting freedom of navigation along the Northern Sea Route.⁽³¹⁾ The US moves on Greenland are also strategic in that they are aimed at blocking Chinese trade in a future war. If the US controlled Greenland it would be easier for it to prevent Chinese shipping getting to Europe via the Arctic route, similarly if the US controlled the Panama canal, another of US’s recent demands, and blockaded the straits of Malacca, Chinese maritime trade could be bottled up. Positions for a future war are being prepared.

Environmental Disaster

The situation in Arctic illustrates the situation across the globe. Imperialist powers compete amid capitalist and ecological crisis. Increased mining, commercial, military activity, and tourism⁽³²⁾ in the Arctic is only worsening climate change. The pursuit of profit is destroying our environment. Melting ice means rising sea levels worldwide. Within the Arctic circle, wildlife is endangered. Greenland’s clear blue lakes have turned brown and have gone from absorbing to emitting carbon dioxide.⁽³³⁾ Researchers found an alarming level of ‘forever chemicals’ in ice around Svalbard.⁽³⁴⁾ When ice melts, these chemicals can move into ecosystems like Arctic fjords and tundra. They endanger plankton, fish, seals, and polar bears.

The only way to prevent the coming imperialist world war and further harm to our environment is to stop their common cause. “From the specific form of material production arises in the first place a specific structure of society, in the second place a specific relation of men to nature. Their State and their ideological outlook is determined by both.”⁽³⁵⁾ The specific form of material production that dominates the world is capitalist production and wage labour is its lifeblood. Only by abolishing it can the workers of the world make the world a Hyperborea rather than see it become the 9th circle of hell.

Erwan
Communist Workers’ Organisation
23 February 2025